A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
