Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Process

Multiple figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.